CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-02-28T09:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-02-28T09:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29393/-1
CME Note: A relatively faint partial halo CME in the E associated with a faint EUV wave in AIA 193. Its clear source is a C5.1 class flare peaking at 2024-02-28T09:09Z centered (~S15E31)(there is no associated active region). The CME is also associated with a type II radio burst, faint dimming and tightly woven bright but small-area post-eruptive arcades. The CME overlaps with one or two more CMEs to the north of it. A distinct arrival is seen at L1 at 2024-03-03T08:47Z. The shock is not clearly observed (there is no abrupt increase in plasma data) and STA impact happens first and the sheath and its rotation are clearly seen and with a slight lag at L1, so the most likely candidates for this arrival are CME 2024-02-28T17:48Z and 2024-02-28T23:12:00-CME-001.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-02T23:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Please enter the following information for your prediction: SWPC ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.9e Resolution: medium Ambient settings: a8b1 Ejecta settings: d4t1x1 WSA version: 2.2 GONG: mrbqs CME input parameters Time at 21.5Rs boundary: Radial velocity (km/s): Longitude (deg): Latitude (deg): Half-angular width (deg): Notes: Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2024 Mar 01 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity ... A C5.1/Sf flare east of Region 3592 at 28/0909 UTC triggered the eruption of a nearby filament. Analysis of the subsequent CME suggests a glancing-blow arrival late on 02 Mar. ...Lead Time: 43.52 hour(s)
Difference: 9.78 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-03-01T13:16Z
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